Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 1.752306e-01 0.211051 0.249574 0.293790 0.342847 0.395331 0.455453
2025-02-16 1.209463e-01 0.167304 0.221388 0.287910 0.366330 0.454723 0.560782
2025-02-23 8.259094e-02 0.132588 0.195993 0.279259 0.382842 0.504827 0.656726
2025-03-02 5.264270e-02 0.100737 0.167682 0.261736 0.384995 0.536124 0.730596
2025-03-09 3.729398e-02 0.084656 0.156456 0.263275 0.409223 0.593793 0.837150
2025-03-16 2.417727e-02 0.067660 0.140375 0.255348 0.419189 0.632713 0.920801
2025-03-23 1.847564e-02 0.061551 0.139311 0.267827 0.456399 0.707172 1.050674
2025-03-30 1.234262e-02 0.051911 0.130494 0.267251 0.474590 0.756465 1.148870
2025-04-06 8.132972e-03 0.044298 0.123461 0.268141 0.494119 0.807389 1.249677
2025-04-13 5.619960e-03 0.039532 0.120596 0.275020 0.522151 0.870118 1.366847
2025-04-20 3.935549e-03 0.036050 0.119463 0.284331 0.553753 0.938133 1.491923
2025-04-27 2.625188e-03 0.032655 0.117749 0.292199 0.583086 1.003292 1.613941
2025-05-04 1.304676e-03 0.027157 0.110321 0.289514 0.596350 1.046789 1.708624
2025-05-11 6.860142e-04 0.024071 0.107790 0.295383 0.623158 1.110151 1.831528
2025-05-18 2.316618e-04 0.019974 0.101515 0.293396 0.636956 1.154737 1.929072
2025-05-25 1.484892e-05 0.014645 0.089776 0.279140 0.629505 1.167529 1.982132
2025-06-01 2.775220e-08 0.012631 0.087190 0.283009 0.652246 1.225284 2.098902
2025-06-08 NaN 0.009632 0.079908 0.275993 0.655795 1.253990 2.174663
2025-06-15 NaN 0.009252 0.082140 0.289900 0.696035 1.338904 2.331490
2025-06-22 NaN 0.007550 0.078315 0.289747 0.711355 1.385854 2.434330
2025-06-29 NaN 0.006214 0.075266 0.290950 0.728926 1.436367 2.542710
2025-07-06 NaN 0.005520 0.074887 0.298363 0.757809 1.504733 2.677543
2025-07-13 NaN 0.005070 0.075546 0.308274 0.791399 1.580768 2.824096